Predicting the 2008 Election

As the election picture clears up and Obama and McCain seem likely to face off for the nomination, it is important to look past all of the media hoopla and try to make some sense of what will happen in November. A lot can happen between now and November, but as outlined in a previous post, Obama is facing an uphill battle to win the Electoral College. It will take a dramatic upset for him to defeat McCain.

In addition to the uphill battle in the electoral college, Obama is facing a tough task when it comes to demographics. Take a look at the exit polling data from the 2004 election in the following spreadsheet.



To analyze the demographic data it is important to pay attention to the second column, which represents the percentage each particular demographic represents of the total electorate. For example 42% of the people who took the exit poll had a college degree. These voters were deadlocked 49% - 49% between Bush and Kerry. This category is a great example where Obama needs to change the margin in order to win in the fall.

Other categories Obama needs to target:

People who made less than $50,000 per year broke 55%-44% to John Kerry. These voters made up 45% of the electorate. Obama has to increase this margin dramatically all over the country. This is the low hanging fruit for Obama.

Voters ages 18-29 broke 54%-45% to Kerry. Although, these voters are a small percentage of the total (17%) this an area Obama needs to exploit and increase the margin.

These are just two areas where Obama will need to be extremely strong. The problem he has is that McCain is likely to retain huge leads in the following demographics.

Gun Owners (41% of voters)
Income over $50,000 (55% of voters)
Caucasians (77% of voters)
Men (46% of voters)
White Women (41% of voters)
Age 60 and above (24% of voters)
Southerners (32% of voters)

McCain will also make a strong run at several toss-up demographics including:

Voters from Western States
Voters from MidWestern States
Independents


As with the previous analysis of the electoral college, it is very unclear where Obama will make the necessary inroads within particular demographic groups in order to win the nomination. Obama has run a tremendous campaign to date, but it will take dramatic changes within the demographic groups to foresee any scenario where he can win in the fall.

For Kerry It Was Vietnam, For Hillary It Is Experience

One can not easily forget John Kerry's ridiculous acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention in 2004. Kerry started his speech with the words, "I'm John Kerry, and I'm reporting for duty." Kerry chose to make his service in Vietnam the theme of his Presidential campaign. After being lampooned by the Swift Boaters, Kerry and his Vietnam service were relegated to the back pages of the history books. It was an obnoxious decision to focus on Vietnam and because of this mistake, Kerry never was able to gain traction in the general election, losing by a decisive margin in the popular vote and in the electoral college.

This year in the Democratic primary Hillary Clinton has made the same mistake. Hillary's constant mantra boasting of her 35 years of experience is ludicrous. Whoever gave her that advice should be fired.

Where the hell does she come off claiming superior experience? Here Clinton is in the Jan. 14 Newsweek, comparing herself with Obama:

"I wish it didn't have to be a choice. I think a lot of people who are torn between us feel that way. But it is a contest, and the contrasts have to be drawn and the questions have to be asked because, obviously, I wouldn't be in this race and working as hard as I am unless I thought I am uniquely qualified at this moment in our history to be the president we need starting in 2009 … I think it is informed by my deep experience over the last 35 years, my firsthand knowledge of what goes on inside a White House."

Oh, please. Thirty-five years takes you back to 1973, half of which Hillary spent in law school, for crying out loud. I don't mean to denigrate her professional experience. Clinton worked many years in corporate and public-interest law, performed advocacy work for the Children's Defense Fund and other groups, and was a university lecturer. She also devoted herself to raising a seemingly bright and loving daughter, which is no small feat, particularly given the public spotlight and some conspicuously

But in government, Clinton's chief role over the years has been that of kibitzer. An important kibitzer, to be sure—what spouse isn't?—but not a direct participant. Clinton emphasizes in particular her profound experience in foreign policy. Here she is on Dec. 20:

It is tempting any time things seem quieter for a minute on the international front to think that we don't need a president who's up to speed on foreign affairs and military matters. Well, that's the kind of logic that got us George Bush in the first place. Experience in foreign affairs is critical for ending the war in Iraq, averting war in Iran, negotiating a Middle East peace and dealing with North Korea.

But a Dec. 26 New York Times story revealed that during her husband's two terms in office, Hillary Clinton did not hold a security clearance, did not attend meetings of the National Security Council, and was not given a copy of the president's daily intelligence briefing. During trips to Bosnia and Kosovo, she "acted as a spokeswoman for American interests rather than as a negotiator." On military affairs, most of her experience derives not from her White House years but from serving on the Senate armed services committee. In this capacity, William Kristol notes gleefully in the Jan. 14 New York Times, Clinton told Gen. David Petraeus this past September that his reports of military progress in Iraq—since shown to be undeniable—required "the willing suspension of disbelief." (What Kristol and Clinton both fail to say is that the surge's laudable military success has created a short-term opportunity that the Iraqi government and Bush himself are doing tragically little to seize. For example, a much-touted move by the Iraqi parliament to open government jobs to former members of the Baath party is, according to a Jan. 14 New York Times story, "riddled with loopholes and caveats to the point that some Sunni and Shiite officials say it could actually exclude more former Baathists than it lets back in.")

Of all the things Hillary could tout to defeat Obama, experience was not the winning solution. The people of the country saw right through this and thus her campaign and her lifelong lust for power has been thwarted.

OBAMA VS. MCCAIN -- LET'S GET READY TO RUMBLE!

Can a 71 year old moderate Republican war hero defeat a 45 year old Democratic upstart with virtually no executive experience or legislative record?

The game is on.

Hillary is out of here. The numbers just don't lie. Due to the proportional nature of the delegates, a comeback by Hillary is virtually impossible. Hooray for America!

Without a doubt the Democrats enthusiasm and voter turnout in the primaries has dwarfed any thing on the Republican side -- but will that translate to an Obama win in the fall?

It will be an uphill battle for Obama -- Can he win Florida? Can he win Ohio? If Obama can't flip either of those states, then his path to victory is very unclear against McCain.

McCain is a fighter, a survivor, a good politician. Lofty rhetoric will not phase him in the least. McCain will draw very clear distinctions on issues. This is something Hillary was unable to do.

Michael Medved states it clearly:

"John McCain needs to learn the lessons of Hillary Clinton’s failed campaign. If he tries to emphasize his obviously superior experience and preparation for the job, he’ll lose in a landslide. Obama can easily characterize him as “yesterday’s man” (as he did in his victory speech on Tuesday night) and emphasize his opponent’s advanced age by “graciously” saluting his “fifty years of service.” He thereby makes the point that he himself isn’t even fifty years old, confirming his vacuous declaration that “we are the change that we’ve been waiting for.”
McCain and the GOP can win the election, but only if they draw crisp, unmistakable distinctions on the issues.

Voters should face big questions: do you think America will be safer if we surrender to terrorists in Iraq and elsewhere? Do you want to pay more in taxes to pay for a bigger government? Do you want to pay for your neighbor’s health insurance, or is the nation stronger when we emphasize individual responsibility? Do we want more freedom and opportunity or do we need more government supervision and regulation?

On these issues, on these crucial choices, Republicans can win. If McCain explains those choices clearly and persuasive (and I believe he will) then his problems with movement conservatives will take care of themselves.

If, on the other hand, he tries to run a campaign based on biography and personality, he’ll meet the same fate as Hillary Clinton. Unless McCain offers bold, positive, conservative vision for the future, and draws clear distinctions on the issues, then even this admirable war hero and maverick Naval aviator is, alas, likely to go down in flames. "

U.S. TO PROVIDE 1.4 BILLION TO MEXICO TO FIGHT DRUG WAR

In a sign of things to come the United States is preparing 1.4 Billion dollars in aid to support the Mexican government's ongoing battle with the Drug Cartels.

The drug related violence and murders in Mexico are spiraling out of control. Last year over 2500 Mexicans were killed in connection to narcotics trafficking.

Mexico is the new Columbia.

Holes In The Border Fence

Business Week has it dead on when they report the following:

"Anyone who has spent any time along the no man's land separating Mexico and the U.S. realizes that the proposition of a sealed border is iffy at best. From Tijuana to Texas, along nearly 2,000 miles of scorching desert, steep canyons, winding rivers, and urban mazes, Federal agents routinely strive for the unattainable—to stop the flow of people so desperate for better lives that they will climb, run, swim, tunnel, bribe, and even hide in car undercarriages to get into the U.S. In the past 15 years the government has erected nearly 300 miles of fencing, including sturdy sheet-metal barriers. The number of Border Patrol agents has almost doubled since 2000, to 14,900, supplemented now by up to 3,000 National Guard troops. Still, migrants continue to cross. And they'll continue to as long as Mexico's per capita income remains one-fifth that of the U.S.—and employers in El Norte welcome them."

The border fence is not going to happen. We have to focus on the problem in this country of employers employing the illegal aliens. Until, that is remedied we are not going to get anywhere. McCain has said very little about his border plan, other than he wants to secure the border first.

What about all of the aliens that are currently here? Are we just going to ignore the obvious problem, and think it is going to go away?

Look at the issue in Texas, alone where an estimated 70 percent of the 26,000 births at Houston and Dallas public hospitals in 2005 were to mothers who are undocumented immigrants.

That trend is only increasing day after day, month after month, year after year...

The solutions are complicated, but the problem is still being ignored...

The Media Admits McCain Is Unstoppable

In a remarkable sign of self-awareness the liberal media is admitting that John McCain is virtually unstoppable as a candidate.

Michael Kinsley of Time Magazine admits that "John McCain is widely regarded as honest, courageous, likable and intelligent. As a lifelong Democrat...I am surely going to vote against McCain, but it is going to take work, and there will be moments of doubt. This will be no fun. McCain is perceived as authentic, which is a deeper form of honesty than mere truth-telling....Among current or recent figures in American public life, only Colin Powell shares McCain's mystical ability to make liberals believe he secretly agrees with them, no matter what he actually says. And Powell has to work at having it both ways...If the Democrats nominate Hillary, both parties will have chosen candidates who are intensely loathed by more than a few of their own members. But the parallel stops there. McCain is widely admired among Democrats, and many Democratic Hillary haters will be happy to vote for him. By contrast, there is no constituency for Hillary among Republicans who can't stand McCain. Nor, for that matter, will many of them vote for Barack Obama. If it's Hillary, people's growing dislike of Bush, his horrible war, his crumbling economy, his tiresome smirk, will help McCain. Even though McCain is the candidate of the President's party and even though he is the biggest supporter of the Iraq war outside of the Administration, McCain is the one who will seem like a new broom that sweeps clean. Hillary, meanwhile, has been transformed by the Washington press corps in the past few weeks from the first woman with a serious chance of becoming President into a two-headed monster always referred to as "the Clintons."

McCain is a tough candidate to beat in November.

Getting To Know Barack Obama

Can Obama Deliver? - The Economist

It's time to start thinking about what a Barack Obama Presidency would represent.

Reaching The Tipping Point In Iraq -- A Tribute To The Blood, Sweat And Tears Of The United States Military

In a report out of Iraq today Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki proclaimed that Al-Qaeda had been routed in Baghdad thanks to a security plan launched a year ago, and would soon be defeated throughout the country.

With a pause to hold our collective breath, and wish for continued good fortune, it seems like a moment to pay tribute to General David Petraeus and the United States troops in Iraq. After four years of intense fighting and the loss of thousands of US troops, and thousands of Iraqi citizens, it seems we may have reached a tipping point where the country can beat back anarchy and progress towards stabilization.

US and Iraqi officials report that attacks across the country are down 62 percent since June while the number of Iraqis -- civilians and security force members -- killed in January 2008 was 541 against 2,087 in the same month in 2007.

This conflict is not over, but a tribute to the progress and efforts of the troops seems fitting.

Forecasting the Electoral College 2008

When the dust settles on the Republican and Democratic primaries, the bottom-line for the nominees will be the Electoral College. George Bush won in 2004 with 286 electoral college votes to 252 for John Kerry. The only difference from 2000 was that Bush was able to narrowly flip New Mexico and Iowa, while John Kerry won New Hampshire. The deal breaker for Bush was the state of Ohio which he won 50%-48% over Kerry. If Kerry had won Ohio, he would be the President.

As we look forward to November, Obama or Clinton knows that in order to win, they have to hold all of the States Kerry won, and flip a few over to their side. Let's take a look at the possibilities:


The Ohio Strategy

The Democrats need to find 18 electoral votes to get the majority. The best strategy is to hold all of Kerry's states and win Ohio. This would give the Dems the clear victory at 271-267. The problem with the Ohio or bust strategy is that John McCain is going to win New Hampshire. McCain's ability to win New Hampshire trumps the Ohio flip and gives the GOP the win at 270-268. Besides, the New Hampshire factor, Ohio is a very conservative state, and even in 2004 with the turbulence of the Iraq war in the headlines, Kerry still lost by 2%.

The Florida Strategy

Again, this would be a deal breaker. If the Dems hold all of Kerry's states and win Florida, they win 277-261. Again, this seems unlikely. The Democratic party is a mess in Florida as they currently will have no voting delegates at the Democratic convention. That is not a good way to enthuse the Democratic base in the state. Also, McCain will have Jeb Bush, Charlie Crist, and Mel Martinez campaigning for him across the state. GW Bush won the state 52%-47%. It seems unlikely that Obama or Clinton can overcome that deficit. Especially as McCain will be the darling of his fellow senior citizens.

The Iowa, New Mexico +1 Strategy

Al Gore won Iowa and New Mexico in 2000. Bush won by a shoestring in both states. The Dems have to see these states as places for major investment. If Clinton is the nominee she could easily try for Iowa, New Mexico and Arkansas. If she holds Kerry's states and wins these three, she would win 270-268. This scenario only seems likely for Clinton, and once Huckabee falls in line I am sure his campaigning would help deaden any Clinton enthusiasm in Arkansas. Remember Hillary is from Illinois, and she has almost a 10% margin to make up.

The Virginia Strategy

This plan would probably include Jim Webb or Tim Kaine as the Dems running mate. It would be an uphill battle, but a possible one. Along with Virginia they would need one more state like Iowa to secure the win. But even a Virginia plus Iowa strategy is thwarted if McCain wins New Hampshire.

The Youth Strategy

This is the most plausible path for Obama. This strategy is all about voter turnout especially among young voters. This could play a factor in numerous states, especially Colorado where CU-Boulder is one of the most liberal campuses in the country, but even if with huge voter turnout across the country among the youth, McCain will deaden that with strengths among the independent voters.

Note that there are still several very plausable tie scenarios in the above map! - Switch Florida to the Dems and Wisconsin to McCain to get 269-269. - Switch Iowa to the Dems and Minnesota to McCain to get 269-269. - Switch Iowa and Ohio to the Dems and Wisconsin to McCain to get 269-269.- Switch Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada to the Democrats to get 269-269.

What would happen in a tie in the electoral college? -- The Democrats would win, as they control more state congressional delegations by a small margin.

WHAT IS THE BOTTOM-LINE?

A Democratic win in November would be a dramatic upset! Unless, there is a major foreign crisis, a health emergency by McCain or an unpredicted act of God, the Democrats simply do not have a clear path to victory. Not only would they have to hold every state from last time, which is unlikely (esp. New Hampshire), they would have to couple together several other upsets. The most plausible would be an Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado combination, which Obama seems most likely to put together, especially if he picked Bill Richardson as VP. But, that would take a 4 point swing in Colorado and a hold of New Hampshire. If he loses New Hampshire the vote would be 269-269 and Obama would be President because of the House of Representatives.

In almost every scenario a McCain win in New Hampshire would thwart the Democrats. For that reason alone McCain should pick Romney as his VP. Romney would also buttress Nevada, and the midwest, and even bring Michigan into play.

It's time for the GOP to look at the facts, restore the optimism and race to a victory in November.

God Bless America!

2004 Electoral College Map

2000 Electoral College Map

1996 Electoral College Map

1992 Electoral College Map

1988 Electoral College Map

1984 Electoral College Map

1980 Electoral College Map

Ronald Reagan Would Back John McCain

Michael Reagan, son of former President Ronald Reagan, has written an article entitled, "Ronald Reagan Would Back McCain." In the article, posted below, Reagan makes it clear that if John McCain is the GOP Nominee, he will be ready to campaign with him and for him.

In 1976, the Ford versus Reagan campaign for the Republican presidential nomination got so heated it looked as if my father and Jerry Ford would never again talk to one another.
When it was over and Ford had won, what did Ronald Reagan do? He simply went all-out to help Ford win his re-election, as did I and as did my sister Maureen. My dad simply followed his rule of backing the Republican candidate no matter who he was.

Assuming that John McCain will be the Republican nominee, you can bet my father would be itching to get out on the campaign trail working to elect him even if he disagreed with him on a number of issues.

Unlike my father, a lot of conservatives stayed home in 1976, and we got four years of Jimmy Carter, whose main legacy was to drive the Shah of Iran from power and create the Islamic Republic of Iran with a bunch of wild-eyed mullahs running the show. He also gave us 20 percent inflation and long, long lines at the gas pumps. And don't forget 440 days of Americans held hostage by the mullahs.

By staying home those conservatives made possible the future election of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

We are still suffering from the legacy of James Earl Carter, thanks to the conservatives who refused to follow Ronald Reagan's example and instead sulked at home while the nation was being handed over to the worst president in American history.

We were still in the middle of the Cold War in those days, and by staying home conservatives risked losing that war by allowing an incompetent leader to become commander in chief.
Four years later Ronald Reagan took over, the hostages were immediately released, and he went on to win the Cold War. Now we have another world-wide war going on with a hidden enemy sworn to kill us all, and the policy of the Democrats running for the presidency is to throw up their hands and withdraw from the battlefield, leaving it to the enemy, and our fate in the hands of Osama bin Laden.

Is that what the let's-stay-home-on-election-day conservatives want? Do they want the most liberal member of the U.S. Senate, Barack Obama, as their president? Do they want the pseudo-Marist Barack Obama, who reportedly has a photo of the murderous Castroite thug Che Guevara hanging in his Houston, Texas campaign headquarters, hanging that photo in the Oval Office?

Do they want Hillary Clinton, the duplicitous former first lady, back in the White House enjoying all those furnishings her staff allegedly tried to swipe from the mansion?

Do they want a Democrat spending even more money that the government doesn't have on scores of programs right out of Karl Marx's playbook?

That's exactly what they'll get if they sit out the election and stay home on Election Day. That's called biting off your nose to spite your face. Or even more to the point, political suicide.
Let me say this. There has been plenty of battling in the primaries, and I've been in the middle of the battle, but until now haven't committed myself to any candidate, waiting until we had a nominee.

That's over.

If John McCain is the nominee of the party, this Reagan will happily campaign with him. The alternative is unthinkable to anyone who loves this nation.

MITT ROMNEY TO ENDORSE JOHN MCCAIN

BREAKING NEWS:

MITT ROMNEY WILL ENDORSE JOHN MCCAIN

A Postive News Story From Iraq

A Department Of Defense press release dated February 14, 2008 reports that three new police stations opened in Baghdad this week staffed fully by citizens of Iraq. A hopeful sign of continued progress in the country...

"The day Huckabee walks away from this race, is the day the Democrats effectively take office" A Prohetic Assertion/Delusion By A Huckabee Supporter?

Eight Questions For Huckabee Fans:

Can we waive the white flag?
Can we give you an olive branch?
Are you really going to sit out the election?
Where was all the passion for Huckabee before McCain emerged as the nominee?
When are you going to stop the insanity and deal with reality?
Have you formed your own party?
On the day McCain receives the 1191 delegates will you back him?
Honestly, what is so great about Huckabee? Other than being from the south?

The Inevitable Hillary is a Loser

Nathan Hale

Hillary and Bill are not going back to the White House. Here are 13 reasons why:

1.Hillary has no class. She has been swept away in the last seven primaries and she can not even acknowledge Obama’s sweeping victories. She pretends they did not happen and do not matter.
2.Americans could not come to grips with the idea of Bill Clinton roaming around the White House for years with nothing to do.
3.Her “ready on day one” and “35 years of experience” did not sell.
4.Nobody cares what her mute daughter thinks.
5.Kennedy and Kerry jumped her sinking ship weeks ago.
6.The base knows she voted to go to war in Iraq.
7.She is now loaning her stalled campaign millions.
8.She has now employed the failed Giuliani firewall strategy.
9.The media [the vast left wing conspiracy] has turned on her.
10.Race bating by Bill in South Carolina backfired.
11.Americans wonder if she has a dress.
12.The Clintons lust for personal power is a turn off.
13.Bill is relieved that she is a loser; he is now off the hook.

Roger Clemens' Wife Was Taking HGH?

Roger Clemens' wife was taking HGH?

Is it possible that our Congress actually spent a day on this issue?

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2008/02/08/2008-02-08_source_brian_mcnamee_testified_roger_cle-2.html


It seems like their should be about a million things more important than this.

The Employee Free Choice Act -- A Coming Storm

The Employee Free Choice Act

If you think that the election in November doesn't matter, or that you should sit out in protest, maybe you should give some thought to a coming storm known as the Employee Free Choice Act. The EFCA will allow trade and industrial unions to form without an election by employees. The only requirement for the formation of a union would be signed union authorization cards by a majority of the employees.

As we have seen in the American auto industry -- especially this week with the devastating financial results announced by General Motors -- unions are a disaster for the economy, as employers are forced through collective bargaining agreements to pay above the market bearing rate.

The U.S. House has already approved the Employee Free Choice Act and the bill has been stopped in the Senate for now. However, the election of Democratic President would assure the passage of this economy killer.

A Democratic President would also have the power to appoint partisan interests to the National Labor Relations Board, which would allow for increased anti-management practices to be sanctioned throughout the country.

U.S. law has evolved to a point where American workers are sufficiently protected, and increased unionization throughout the country would be a recipe for economic disaster.

Should Conservatives Back Mac?

This is an excellent piece by Jonah Goldberg of The National Review. It outlines three major areas where President Bush deserves the blame for violating conservative principles.

1. Bush signed the Campaign Finance Bill
2. Bush endorsed amnesty for illegal aliens
3. Bush signed the prescription drug benefit (which John McCain voted against)

Very much worth the read.

Jonah Goldberg in USA Today

http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2008/02/should-conserva.html

The McCain Mutiny

Like the Naval officer in the classic film "The Caine Mutiny", Senator John McCain is facing a vigorous insurrection from within the GOP party. McCain has a lock on the GOP nomination, but continues to be battered by conservatives in the media and in the blogosphere. Can he bring the party together? Will the party faithful stay home in November? Do they really hate the Senior Senator from Arizona?

This is a man who has voted with the Republican party 88.1% of the time during the current congressional session. That percentage ranks him higher than the following Senators:

Bob Corker
Mel Martinez
Larry Craig
Lindsey Graham
Thad Cochran
Lamar Alexander
James Inhofe
Orrin Hatch
John Kyl
Jim Demint
Kit Bond
John Warner
John Sununu
Charles Grassel
Judge Gregg
Tom Coburn
Ted Stevens
Lisa Murkowski
Norm Coleman
Chuck Hagel
Richard Lugar
Norm Coleman
Susan Collins
Olympia Snowe
Gordon Smith
Arlen Specter

Now, it is important to concede that Senator McCain has also missed some votes due to the campaign, however an 88% mark for the last year seems pretty consistent. A lifetime conservative ranking of 82% shows a career of consistent party line votes.

Has he ever wandered? Yes. But, if Governor Huckabee or Governor Romney had that many years in the Senate, what would their voting record have looked like? It is doubtful that either one of them could have been much more consistent.

Nevertheless, the bitterness and vitriol against McCain continues.

The constant carping against the nominee will not help to build the needed enthusiasm to win in November.

Will it ever stop? Or is the party fractured for good?

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/congress/110/senate/party-voters/

Enforcing Immigration Laws Actually Works

According to an article in the New York Times illegal aliens are fleeing Arizona after a new law went into effect that suspends or revokes the business license of companies who knowingly hire illegals. The article also points to a slowing economy as a contributor to the migration out of the state.

There are a lot of ideas to deal with the issue of illegal aliens. Logistically it would be a nightmare to try and round up and deport all of the illegal aliens. Granting them amnesty would not only reward law breakers but it would also encourage more illegals to come. Building a fence may deter some but anything short of a "Berlin Wall" with armed troops will only partially help.

Arizona may be onto something. By eliminating the ability for the illegals to work they have no incentive to come illegally. We'll have to wait and see how things play out in Ariziona.

Thank You, Barack Obama!

Regardless of your political preference a show of gratitude at this time to Barack Obama seems appropriate.

Consider these typical editorial comments from New York Newspapers from July and October of 2007...

"Barack Obama's entry into the presidential race is working out just fine for Hillary Clinton.Since he unexpectedly stepped forward to run late last year, Illinois' junior senator has helped curtail John Edwards' early momentum, starved the other six Democratic candidates of badly-needed oxygen, and kept Al Gore at bay - each a significant boon to Mrs. Clinton's efforts.At the same time, Mr. Obama himself has proven an underwhelming candidate (except in the fund-raising department), one who has thus far failed to develop and articulate a specific message that might stem the stubborn gap - in national polls and key early states - that separates his second-place candidacy from the front-running former First Lady.Indeed, while the Republican race is unusually unsettled and cluttered at the top, the Democratic nominating contest, six months from the first caucus, has a rather definite shape: Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama seem to be the only two candidates with realistic shots at the nomination, and Mrs. Clinton much more so than Mr. Obama. Hillary now enjoys commanding leads in two of the first four primary and caucus states: Nevada and New Hampshire, where polls consistently show her 15 to 20 points ahead of Mr. Obama, her nearest challenger. Data from South Carolina has not been quite as consistent, but Hillary leads Mr. Obama in most surveys there as well, and she's even supplanted Mr. Edwards, the long-time Iowa front-runner, in several recent polls there.The Democratic nominating contest will play out in two waves early next year: A two-week series of stand-alone contests (Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, in that order), followed by the almost certainly decisive "Tsunami Tuesday" in early February, when about two dozen states will hold primaries and caucuses. (There may end up being a fifth stand-alone contest in Florida, another state where Mrs. Clinton holds a lop-sided polling advantage.)From a practical standpoint, this means that if any candidate is to overtake Hillary, that candidate will need to win at least two of those early contests, three maybe, in order to generate the momentum required to defuse Mrs. Clinton's inevitability in the "Tsunami Tuesday" states."
So Far, Obama Has Been Good For Hillary, New York Observer, July 12, 2007, Josh Benson


"It is inevitable, apparently, that Hillary Clinton will become the Democratic presidential candidate. And it is inevitable, some go on to say, that Mrs. Clinton will therefore become president.It is not just dyed-in the-wool Democrats who say such things. It is President Bush's view, too, that a Clinton candidacy is an inevitability, though party loyalty ensures that he cannot bring himself to say that it is inevitable she will win the White House. He says, as well he might, he thinks the Republican candidate also stands a chance. And it is not just politicians and pundits who say Mrs. Clinton's accession is inevitable. All the polling and other evidence, both national and local, suggests that Mrs. Clinton is a shoo-in..."
The Inevitable?, The New York Sun, October 10, 2007 Wednesday, OPINION; Pg. 8, NICHOLAS WAPSHOTT

Thanks to the incredible campaign of Barack Obama, the air of inevitability has vanished and Senator Clinton is now fighting for her political life. It is a remarkable political story, and one that is very good for America.

The Clinton fatigue across the nation spreads deep into both parties. Even Ted Kennedy, the most liberal and established Senator in the nation has endorsed Obama. That really is remarkable.

Clinton is down, and the momentum is rolling against her, and let's hope it continues.

Thank you Senator Obama for leading the fight. The country can not afford another Clinton presidency.

For Better Or Worse Mike Huckabee Is A Looter

In her fabled classic, "Atlas Shrugged", the late Ayn Rand divides the people of the world into two distinct groups. The first group are the "Producers". These are the people that create, organize, build and lead society. Rand postulates that if the "Producers" went on strike that the world would fall into anarchy.

The second group of people are "Looters". They siphon off of the "Producers" ability and believe that the "Producers" should be forced to share with the masses. The "looters" are not fans of individual achievment, rugged individualism or capitalism.

Obviously, Rand paints the world in simplistic terms, but she forces each reader to decide if they are a producer or a looter.

If you pointed a gun to my head and forced me to make the call regarding Mike Huckabee, I would have to say that he is a looter, and that is why he is unappealing to 70% of the Republican party.


In his own words, "I think we need a President who comes from Main Street not from Wall Street."

Come on Mike, what kind of comment is that? What are you trying to say?

As a capitalist, I am thankful for the guys and gals on Wall Street, and I appreciate their industry, drive, ambiton and competence.

I hope they never go on strike.

Reagan's Liberal Legacy

Adapted from an article By Joshua Green
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2001/0301.green.html

Reagan was one of the most conservative president’s in US History. His record is not as ideologically pure as some remember. Some facts to consider:

Rather than abolish the departments of Energy and Education, as he had promised to do if elected president, Reagan added a new cabinet-level department--one of the largest federal agencies--the Department of Veterans Affairs.

In 1983 Reagan made one of the greatest ideological about-faces in the history of the presidency, agreeing to a $165 billion bailout of Social Security.

One year after his massive across the board tax cut, Reagan agreed to a tax increase to reduce the deficit that restored fully one-third of the previous year's reduction.

Faced with looming deficits, Reagan raised taxes again in 1983 with a gasoline tax and once more in 1984, this time by $50 billion over three years, mainly through closing tax loopholes for business. Despite the fact that such increases were anathema to conservatives--and probably cost Reagan's successor, George H.W. Bush, reelection--Reagan raised taxes a grand total of four times just between 1982-84.

The historic Tax Reform Act of 1986, though it achieved the supply side goal of lowering individual income tax rates, was a startlingly progressive reform. The plan imposed the largest corporate tax increase in history--an act utterly unimaginable for any conservative to support today. Just two years after declaring, "there is no justification" for taxing corporate income, Reagan raised corporate taxes by $120 billion over five years and closed corporate tax loopholes worth about $300 billion over that same period. In addition to broadening the tax base, the plan increased standard deductions and personal exemptions to the point that no family with an income below the poverty line would have to pay federal income tax. Even at the time, conservatives within Reagan's administration were aghast. According to Wall Street Journal reporters Jeffrey Birnbaum and Alan Murray, whose book Showdown at Gucci Gulch chronicles the 1986 measure, "the conservative president's support for an effort once considered the bastion of liberals carried tremendous symbolic significance." When Reagan's conservative acting chief economic adviser, William Niskanen, was apprised of the plan he replied, "Walter Mondale would have been proud."

The fact that Reagan's presidency didn't accomplish anything approaching its seismic promise--the size of government grew, abortion remained legal, and entitlements still abounded--is one that his partisan biographers elide by focusing on what Reagan believed and said rather than on what he actually did.

Jeb Bush Endorses McCain

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush Endorses John McCain For President

ARLINGTON, VA -- U.S. Senator John McCain's presidential campaign today announced that former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has endorsed John McCain for president.

"John McCain is a patriot and devoted conservative leader," said Governor Bush. "Like no other candidate in the field, John McCain has made tremendous sacrifices for this nation. He is beholden to no interest other than that of the public good. He is determined and steadfast in his commitment to reducing the burden of high taxes, restoring the people's trust in their government, and winning the war against radical Islamic extremists. It is with pride that I announce my endorsement of John McCain for president."

John McCain thanked Governor Bush, saying, "I am very proud to have Jeb Bush's support. He has a distinguished record of conservative leadership and I admire his dedicated service to the people of Florida. He makes a great addition to our growing team of Republican leaders."

Jeb Bush was born in Midland, Texas. After earning his bachelor's degree at the University of Texas at Austin, Mr. Bush married Columba Garnica Gallo. Mr. Bush started his career in Florida politics as the Chairman of the Dade County Republican Party. He was later appointed to serve as Florida's Secretary of Commerce. Mr. Bush served as Florida's 43rd governor from 1999-2006 and was the first Republican ever to serve two terms.

McCain's Endorsement Stack A Mile High

Can all of these people be wrong?

http://www.johnmccain.com/supporters/

Another Christian Conservative Endorses McCain

On Monday, Mr. McCain also received the endorsement of Gary L. Bauer, a prominent Christian conservative who was one of the few evangelical leaders to endorse Mr. McCain in his race for president eight years ago.

“John McCain has dedicated his life to defending human rights around the world, including the rights of the unborn,” Mr. Bauer said in a statement released by the McCain campaign. “I admire his consistent 24-year pro-life record and demonstrated commitment to the values that keep our families and communities strong.'’

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/11/mccain-plays-nice-with-huckabee/

A Fair Response To A Huckabee Fanatic

The following is actual commentary by a Huckabee supporter. My responses are in red:


According to RealClearPolitics McCain has 720 delegates & still needs 471 to win.
That means he has to get 44% of the remaining delegates to secure 1191.

2) So Huckabee needs to win 57% of the remaining delegates to force this to a Brokered Convention.

If your goal is a "brokered convention" then you are out of your mind. A "brokered convention" is equivalent to a fractured party. Why would that be your goal? Why do you assert that this somehow strengthens the party? Do you want to destroy the GOP?

At a brokered convention Huckabee would be humiliated. The Romney wing of the party are not supporters of Huckabee. They would coalesce around McCain.

I can't believe I even have to respond to this as the numbers do not add up for Huck. McCain will receive way more than the required delagates prior to the convention. It is over!

3) On Super Tuesday McCain got 42% of the vote in Blue States and only 26% in Red States. Over 60% of McCain’s delegates have come from Blue States. Do we really want our candidate picked by States that we have very little chance of winning in the Fall?

Yes, McCain's strength in the Blue states increases the likelihood of winning the nomination, which is the goal if you are a member of the GOP.

4) Remaining delegates: Red States = 711 [ 70.5% ], Blue States = 297 [ 29.5% ]

RED States Left:
=============
47 Louisiana
39 Kansas
63 Virginia
140 Texas
88 Ohio
39 Mississippi
69 North Carolina
57 Indiana
33 Nebraska
45 Kentucky
32 Idaho
32 New Mexico
27 South Dakota

5) Every time Republicans have gone to a Brokered Convention we have won!

Abraham Lincoln – 3rd Ballot - Won Presidency
Rutherford Hayes – 7th Ballot - Won Presidency
James Garfield - 36th Ballot - Won Presidency
Warning Harding – 10th Ballot – Won Presidency

6) Conservatives Unite! There is still time! Win the Red States and we go to the convention for a discussion about what it means to be a republican.

The only people uniting around Mike Huckabee are Evangelical Christians. That is his base and only source of support. Conservatives have already united around McCain. Stop the delusions and start helping the Party.

The Democrats Civil War

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/10/opinion/10rich.html?em&ex=1202792400&en=8603c6542881bd98&ei=5087%0A

This is a well thought article from Frank Rich. Worth Reading.

Sore Losers – Limbaugh, Evangelicals and the heart and soul of the GOP

The incessant carping by Limbaugh & Co. and the Evangelicals reminds me of the trash talking that is pervasive in the NBA and the NFL. Players will make a big play and seconds later they will be yelling in the face of their competitor, or dancing all over the field or court. It is really childish. I know John Wooden or Vince Lombardi would never have stood for such a thing. It falls outside the bounds of good sportsmanship.

Although, I disdain the practice, I do recall a response to a particular episode of trash talking that I fully supported at the time. NFL player Deion Sanders was on the receiving end of some trash talk during a game when he stopped and pointed at the scoreboard, indicating to his opponent, that no matter how much he screamed and yelled, the score told the whole story.

Deion Sanders’ team was winning, and that was all that mattered.

At this time I think it is important to remind Limbaugh & Co. and the Evangelicals to look at the scoreboard. The game is over. John McCain will be the nominee of the GOP at the party convention in August. No matter how much you want to change the result, the game has come to an end.

The sad thing is that you have no one to blame but yourselves. Limbaugh refused to endorse a candidate until the day before Super Tuesday when the die had already been cast. Dr. James Dobson, the leader of the evangelical movement resisted endorsing Governor Huckabee only until recent days.

If these presumed leaders within the conservative movement cared so much about the end result, why were they so afraid to stick their necks out until the very end?

Now, I am only singling them out as being emblematic of the overall problem. The battle to keep McCain from the nomination was going to take a lot more than simply listing his alleged political sins. The rest of the party (70% of us) was fractured among the remaining candidates.

Our inability to coalesce around another candidate is why John McCain is the nominee.

It is our own fault.

We have to look in the mirror and accept that.

Now, that McCain is the presumptive nominee it is time to step back and consider your level of support for the Republican Party.

Stop being sore losers.

Accept the reality and let’s begin the process to defeat Obama or Clinton in November.

If you are a Republican, a believer in the party of Lincoln, the time has come to unite.

I'm a Republican Because...

I BELIEVE the strength of our nation lies with the individual and that each person’s dignity, freedom, ability and responsibility must be honored.

I BELIEVE in equal rights, equal justice and equal opportunity for all, regardless of race, creed, sex, age or disability.

I BELIEVE free enterprise and encouraging individual initiative have brought this nation opportunity, economic growth and prosperity.

I BELIEVE government must practice fiscal responsibility and allow individuals to keep more of the money they earn.

I BELIEVE the proper role of government is to provide for the people only those critical functions that cannot be performed by individuals or private organizations, and that the best government is that which governs least.

I BELIEVE the most effective, responsible and responsive government is government closest to the people.

I BELIEVE Americans must retain the principles that have made us strong while developing new and innovative ideas to meet the challenges of changing times.

I BELIEVE Americans value and should preserve our national strength and pride while working to extend peace, freedom and human rights throughout the world.

FINALLY, I believe the Republican Party is the best vehicle for translating these ideals into positive and successful principles of government.

7 Reasons No Good Liberal Votes for McCain

By Nathan Hale
Senator Mc Cain has an agenda that no good liberal could be proud of. What follows are 7 reasons why liberals will never vote for Senator McCain.

1.The War – McCain has been for the bombing, the buildup, the surge, and for staying 100 years to get it right if need be.
2.Taxes – McCain now fully embraces the Bush tax cuts. He is pushing to make them permanent.
3.Guns – McCain will be the NRA candidate
4.Right to Life – McCain will keep the party solidly pro-life.
5.No Universal Healthcare – McCain wants private reform of healthcare not national mandatory universal coverage
6.Judges – McCain is promising judges like Roberts and Alito
7.Budget Restraint - McCain will veto any bill with earmarks attached

McCain is positioned to offer Americans a conservative choice in November. That choice is one a liberal is going to reject.

Hillary Clinton Campaign Teetering On The Brink

Barack Obama is on a roll. This weekends sweep of the primaries has the Clinton camp sweating bullets. Already cash strapped and out of momentum, Clinton has now dismissed her campaign manager. Can you imagine what the closed doors meetings must be like around the Clinton War Room?

We are witnessing a campaign on the brink of total implosion. I give the Democrats a lot of credit across the country for seeing through the mirage and focusing on a new candidate without all of the baggage.



See the inside scoop linked below:



http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Clinton_campaign_manager_out.html

Huckabee's Charm Is Disappearing

"I know the pundits, and I know what they say: The math doesn't work out," Huckabee said Saturday morning at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington. "Well, I didn't major in math, I majored in miracles. And I still believe in those, too."

This statement epitomizes the world view of Mike Huckabee. Unfortunately, the folksy schtick and hilarious one-liners are getting old. As Huckabee wins a couple of meaningless caucuses, one has to wonder if their has ever been a more shameless, and self-serving candidacy in the history of American politics.

What's the point Mike? Do you think you are going to be the VP or get a nod for a cabinet position? Do you want to serious splinter your party? Do you just love seeing your name in the newspaper and your face on TV? This isn't a game. This is reality. The stakes this fall are high. We have hundreds of thousands of troops depolyed across the globe. Our economy is teetering on the edge of a recession. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are two of the most liberal people on the planet.

Nevertheless you vow to press on. With your efforts to rally the evangelicals and conservative radios efforts to influence the agenda by bashing McCain, the Republican party finds itself in the unusual position of fighting a two-front war againts itself.

How can that be productive?

Mike, I really hope you enjoy and relish your day in the sun. Cut out all the news clippings and record your TV appearance for later. I am glad that you are having such a great time in your quest for a miracle.

Unfortunately, your caprices come at the expense of party strength.

Any candidate who does the cost/benefit analysis in those terms and pledges to be a thorn in the side of the nominee has forever lost my trust or consideration.

Enjoy the game.

John McCain has a 95% rating from Citizens Against Government Waste

John McCain has a 95% rating from the Citizens Against Government Waste.
He is the top ranked Senator in this regard.
See the data for yourself.
http://councilfor.cagw.org/site/VoteCenter?location=S&page=congScorecard&s_oo=JJSlrOfp0VHvMjO6Qw81Qg..

FLASH: McCain To Meet With Romney

http://embeds.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/02/09/mccain-looks-to-unify-gop-plans-to-meet-with-mitt-romney/

Fox News reports that John McCain is planning a meeting with Mitt Romney, to discuss party unification. McCain knows that Romney received over 4,000,000 votes during the primary races and won the CPAC straw poll for the second year in a row. If they can check their ego's -- one might begin to wonder if they would be the perfect ticket in the Fall?

The Right Is Wrong About McCain

Supreme Court Justices and the War on Terror.

Conservatives need to cease the games and Rally to McCain. This is a good article from President Reagan's National Security Adviser.



http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120251661161755395.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries

Political Leanings

A lot has been made of the relative conservativeness of Republican Nominee John McCain. Some pundits have even stated that if John McCain wins the Presidency that it would be the same as if Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama were elected.



This assertion is ludicrous.

Senator McCain certainly has a proven history of being on the right side of almost every issue.



Before you start believing everything you hear, take a look at his record as outlined in the following links.

http://www.conservative.org/archive2/other.asp

When compared to Obama and Clinton the contrast is remarkable.



(I apologize if I have offended Huckabee supporters, by ignoring the fact that he is still in the race. Due to the proportional provision of delegates during the final primaries, he simply has no conceivable way of winning. The numbers don't lie. Get over it.)

The American Conservative Union Scorecard

Senator Name	2006	2005	Lifetime Rating	Years of Service
DeMINT	100	96	98.0	8
COBURN	100	100	97.8	8
INHOFE	100	100	97.5	20
SESSIONS	92	100	97.3	10
KYL	92	100	96.9	20
ALLARD	88	96	95.1	16
BUNNING	96	92	94.9	20
ENSIGN	100	100	94.4	12
CHAMBLISS	96	96	94.4	12
CORNYN	96	96	94.3	4
BROWNBACK	87	100	94.0	12
VITTER	92	96	94.0	8
CRAIG	88	96	93.4	26
SUNUNU	88	83	93.2	10
CRAPO	88	100	92.9	14
TALENT	92	84	92.8	12
ALLEN	96	100	92.6	8
LOTT	88	91	92.4	34
ENZI	96	96	91.5	10
BURR	92	92	91.2	12
DOLE	96	96	91.0	4
BURNS	92	100	90.6	18
GRAHAM	83	96	90.6	12
HUTCHISON	84	92	90.4	14
MARTINEZ	84	100	90.0	2
HATCH	84	92	89.9	30
McCONNELL	84	100	89.7	22
ISAKSON	96	100	89.0	8
THOMAS	96	92	88.9	18
SANTORUM	96	92	88.1	16
FRIST	76	92	87.8	12
THUNE	100	92	87.0	8
ROBERTS	84	88	86.9	26
BENNETT	72	92	85.6	14
HAGEL	75	96	85.2	10
ALEXANDER	72	88	84.3	4
GRASSLEY	88	96	83.3	32
BOND	80	88	82.5	20
McCAIN	65	80	82.3	24
WARNER	64	88	80.8	28
COCHRAN	67	88	80.3	34
DeWINE	72	56	79.8	20
GREGG	72	72	78.7	22
LUGAR	64	88	78.6	30
COLEMAN	68	64	75.3	4
VOINOVICH	56	68	74.6	8
MURKOWSKI	71	83	74.6	4
SMITH	72	58	74.5	10
DOMENICI	75	91	74.3	34
SHELBY	74	88	74.2	28
STEVENS	64	80	64.5	36
Nelson Ben	64	60	55.0	6
COLLINS	48	32	53.9	10
SNOWE	36	32	49.9	28
SPECTER	43	63	44.7	26
Nelson Bill	40	20	41.2	16
CHAFEE	24	12	34.7	7
Byrd	21	20	29.6	36
Pryor	20	24	23.5	4
Jeffords	4	8	23.4	22
Salazar	17	32	22.5	2
Conrad	33	21	20.9	20
Bayh	16	20	20.8	8
Landrieu	24	44	20.6	10
Lincoln	8	16	20.1	14
Reid	12	4	19.9	24
Johnson, Tim	12	13	19.6	20
Dorgan	12	17	17.2	20
Lieberman	17	8	16.8	18
Carper	20	8	16.3	6
Kohl	16	13	14.9	18
Baucus	8	24	14.0	32
Biden	4	8	13.4	34
Bingaman	8	13	12.5	24
Stabenow	16	12	12.0	6
Feingold	8	13	11.8	14
Cantwell	12	8	11.2	6
Dayton	8	16	10.7	6
Feinstein	0	12	10.1	14
Rockefeller	10	4	9.6	22
Wyden	8	4	9.6	26
Menendez	4	0	9.6	14
Clinton	8	12	9.0	6
Harkin	8	4	8.6	32
Dodd	8	8	8.3	32
Obama	8	8	8.0	2
Akaka	0	8	7.4	30
Inouye	8	5	7.2	36
Reed	4	0	7.2	16
Levin	8	17	7.1	28
Durbin	4	0	6.7	24
Mikulski	0	5	6.3	30
Schumer	4	8	6.2	26
Leahy	0	0	6.1	32
Kerry	12	8	5.6	22
Lautenberg	0	0	5.2	22
Sarbanes	0	0	4.8	36
Murray	4	0	3.3	14
Boxer	8	12	3.0	24
Kennedy	0	0	2.5	36