As the election picture clears up and Obama and McCain seem likely to face off for the nomination, it is important to look past all of the media hoopla and try to make some sense of what will happen in November. A lot can happen between now and November, but as outlined in a previous post, Obama is facing an uphill battle to win the Electoral College. It will take a dramatic upset for him to defeat McCain.
In addition to the uphill battle in the electoral college, Obama is facing a tough task when it comes to demographics. Take a look at the exit polling data from the 2004 election in the following spreadsheet.
To analyze the demographic data it is important to pay attention to the second column, which represents the percentage each particular demographic represents of the total electorate. For example 42% of the people who took the exit poll had a college degree. These voters were deadlocked 49% - 49% between Bush and Kerry. This category is a great example where Obama needs to change the margin in order to win in the fall.
Other categories Obama needs to target:
People who made less than $50,000 per year broke 55%-44% to John Kerry. These voters made up 45% of the electorate. Obama has to increase this margin dramatically all over the country. This is the low hanging fruit for Obama.
Voters ages 18-29 broke 54%-45% to Kerry. Although, these voters are a small percentage of the total (17%) this an area Obama needs to exploit and increase the margin.
These are just two areas where Obama will need to be extremely strong. The problem he has is that McCain is likely to retain huge leads in the following demographics.
Gun Owners (41% of voters)
Income over $50,000 (55% of voters)
Caucasians (77% of voters)
Men (46% of voters)
White Women (41% of voters)
Age 60 and above (24% of voters)
Southerners (32% of voters)
McCain will also make a strong run at several toss-up demographics including:
Voters from Western States
Voters from MidWestern States
Independents
As with the previous analysis of the electoral college, it is very unclear where Obama will make the necessary inroads within particular demographic groups in order to win the nomination. Obama has run a tremendous campaign to date, but it will take dramatic changes within the demographic groups to foresee any scenario where he can win in the fall.
In addition to the uphill battle in the electoral college, Obama is facing a tough task when it comes to demographics. Take a look at the exit polling data from the 2004 election in the following spreadsheet.
To analyze the demographic data it is important to pay attention to the second column, which represents the percentage each particular demographic represents of the total electorate. For example 42% of the people who took the exit poll had a college degree. These voters were deadlocked 49% - 49% between Bush and Kerry. This category is a great example where Obama needs to change the margin in order to win in the fall.
Other categories Obama needs to target:
People who made less than $50,000 per year broke 55%-44% to John Kerry. These voters made up 45% of the electorate. Obama has to increase this margin dramatically all over the country. This is the low hanging fruit for Obama.
Voters ages 18-29 broke 54%-45% to Kerry. Although, these voters are a small percentage of the total (17%) this an area Obama needs to exploit and increase the margin.
These are just two areas where Obama will need to be extremely strong. The problem he has is that McCain is likely to retain huge leads in the following demographics.
Gun Owners (41% of voters)
Income over $50,000 (55% of voters)
Caucasians (77% of voters)
Men (46% of voters)
White Women (41% of voters)
Age 60 and above (24% of voters)
Southerners (32% of voters)
McCain will also make a strong run at several toss-up demographics including:
Voters from Western States
Voters from MidWestern States
Independents
As with the previous analysis of the electoral college, it is very unclear where Obama will make the necessary inroads within particular demographic groups in order to win the nomination. Obama has run a tremendous campaign to date, but it will take dramatic changes within the demographic groups to foresee any scenario where he can win in the fall.
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1 comment:
I think on this one you have forgotten Katrina, the scandals that have plagued the administration since the last election, the Iraq war, immigration, I think the list goes on and on and on and on. I think its safe to say the electoral demographics of this election will be much different than the last one. Oh, one other main sticking point. Obama wants to win, he knows how to win, John Kerry rolled over for George Bush, er the Swift Boaters.
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